Transatlantic air travel is expected to slow significantly this summer, according to new booking data from aviation analytics firm Cirium. Demand from both North America and Europe is falling, with near double-digit drops in reservations compared to last year.
Cirium’s analysis shows that bookings from North America to Europe for the months of June, July, and August are down by almost 10% compared to the same period in 2024. Travel in the opposite direction — from Europe to North America — has declined even more sharply, with bookings falling by 12%.
The data is based on reservations made between January 31 and May 7 each year. It was collected from third-party travel agencies and reflects only a sample of trips to popular destinations. While not comprehensive, the numbers align with recent warnings from airlines in their earnings reports. Many carriers have pointed to slower transatlantic demand, citing factors such as global market uncertainty, a continuing trade war, and tighter border controls in the United States.
Some European cities have seen a particularly sharp fall in travel interest. Munich, Amsterdam, Athens, and Rome are among those experiencing the biggest drops in bookings. Lisbon is the only major European city in the data showing an increase in travel.
In the U.S., major hubs including San Francisco, Washington, Los Angeles, and Houston are seeing some of the largest declines in demand from international travelers.
The data suggests that after a strong post-pandemic recovery, the transatlantic travel market may now be entering a period of cooling, shaped by geopolitical and economic headwinds on both sides of the ocean.
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