The European Travel Commission (ETC) has raised concerns about the “heightened uncertainty” in transatlantic travel due to President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs.
As a result, Europe may see fewer American visitors this year, according to the ETC. The organization noted that fluctuations in the euro/US dollar exchange rate, along with rising travel costs, could reduce demand from the US.
“While Europe continues to be a top destination for long-haul travelers, the current economic factors may soften US demand,” the ETC said. The US represented 9% of global travel before the pandemic, and in recent years, American tourists accounted for more than a third of Europe’s long-haul arrivals.
Despite these challenges, early 2025 data shows that US travel to Europe remains strong, with over 80% of destinations reporting year-on-year growth in the first quarter.
The ETC also pointed out that some factors could balance out the decline, such as fewer US visitors traveling to the US—especially from China—and an increase in short-haul travel within Europe as travelers opt for regional trips amid economic and political instability.
The commission, which represents national tourism organizations across Europe, highlighted the ongoing demand for budget-friendly destinations and off-peak travel. These trends reflect travelers’ growing sensitivity to prices.
However, the ETC cautioned that while 2025 has started off stable, the economic outlook is increasingly uncertain. The rising costs, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and the new US tariffs are expected to influence both traveler sentiment and spending habits as the year progresses.
Travel spending in Europe is expected to increase by about 14% in 2025 compared to 2024. However, the rise in spending may outpace the increase in arrivals, suggesting travelers will spend more per visit.
In the first quarter of 2025, international tourist arrivals increased by 4.9% compared to the same period last year, while the number of nights stayed grew by 2.2%.
Miguel Sanz, president of the ETC, stated, “Europe’s tourism sector remains remarkably resilient, with the latest data showing that European tourism is adapting to changing traveler priorities.”
Sanz added that there is strong interest in budget-friendly destinations and an increasing demand for travel outside the traditional peak season. These shifts reflect not only cost-consciousness but also a broader desire for more authentic and balanced travel experiences.
“As global uncertainty grows, Europe’s diversity, connectivity, and reliable quality place the region in a strong position to remain a preferred destination for travelers worldwide,” he concluded.
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